Will High Beef Prices Stick Around?

Athens, GA |

It’s been sticker shock for customers browsing the beef section of their local grocery store over the past few years with prices reaching record high levels. That trend is likely to continue this year with inventory taking a dip.

“So, in 2024, cattle prices should be very high. We should continue to see the trend that we saw in 2023 where we saw prices continually higher year over year. In 2024, we expect that to continue where we see prices higher year over year,” says Will Secor, Extension Livestock Economist.

However, that had yet to curb the demand. In fact, the amount of beef being eaten domestically continues to rise.

“Despite those really high beef prices, we actually see consumers consuming more beef per person in the US. We have pretty similar real prices, normal prices for beef in the retail sector for the past couple of years as say maybe where we were in 2014 or so. We’re actually consuming a few more pounds per person in the US,” says Secor.

As for when consumers can expect to see a bit of relief on the prices, that won’t be for quite some time with herd contraction predicted to continue.

“We’re expecting probably about a ten year to eleven-year cycle on average when we look at the history of cattle inventory numbers. What that means is we just hit year ten. So, we’re going to be moving into year eleven in 2025. So, we expect probably sometime around 2025 for those numbers to bottom out and start to move higher form there,” says Secor.

Just how high those prices get might determine the future of the cattle market.

“Once we start see beef prices this high, we’re really kind of testing the consumer’s willingness and ability to pay for beef. The question mark is, especially if we hit any kind of macroeconomic concerns like a recession or higher unemployment, then we might start to see the consumer start to pull back from beef and maybe go to other cheaper protein alternatives such as chicken or pork,” says Secor.

With all those economic uncertainties, cattlemen could mitigate some of that risk by taking advantage of the current prices.

“Cut costs where you can, but don’t cut corners. Then, also think about with these high prices, where are opportunities to lock in and protect from any kind of downside price risk. So, thinking about all the different price risk management strategies that they can take advantage of, what fits their operation and how can they use those to manage some of those risks and take advantage of these higher prices,” says Secor.

By: Damon Jones

One Family’s Love for Beef Transformed into a Thriving Business

Bostwick, GA

In Morgan County, it’s truly a labor of love for Stan and Vanessa Nabors, owners of Faithway Cattle – a family run cattle operation that specializes in farm to table beef. It was journey they started a few years back when after wanting to make a change with their operation, which, according to the Nabors, turned out to be a great decision for their farm.

“We started with just beef cows, did that up until seventeen, and started then raising beef for consumers. The reason for that was there was just not enough money left over in the calf/cow operation to be able to sustain the farm and make it worthy to keep,” says Stan. “So, we started that in seventeen, and has really been good for us. My wife helped me a lot with that. She’s the one that does the marketing, and it has grown every year. It really has taken off. You know, from the first year we harvested one, to now we harvest thirty to forty a year.”

“We’ve had great reception, the public wanting to know where their food is coming from, they’re wanting to support local, they’re wanting to have that relationship and also there’s a lot of people outside of just wanting to support local and their local farmer, knowing where their food’s coming from, is about the health benefits, so I will say it’s one of the hardest things I’ve ever done because I didn’t grow up in this, however, it’s one of the most rewarding things that I am doing, and so I’m very grateful for that to provide a good product, a premium product that not only is wonderful in taste but just the health benefits behind it,” says Vanessa.

As they stated, their business has grown year over year, which of course can be attributed to having a great product, but it also has to do with their marketing efforts, which allows them to show their customers who they are as producers and also gives them a chance to share recipes, management practices, and other digital content that helps build relationships with customers.

“What’s important to me about that is to be able to provide a premium product to the customer, that can have a relationship with their farmer and know where their beef comes from and the quality of it that they can expect of it,” says Stan. “The public has really brought it to light, you know, that they need to know their farmer because of all the issues. I think they benefit from it, it’s a good thing for them and for me too.”

“Everyone deserves to have good food and if they choose to want to buy local and know their farmer behind it, I look at that as just an extra bonus too,” says Vanessa.

As for the future, the Nabors say that they have plans to take their operation to the next level but aren’t sure when those plans will take place – all they know is, just like in the past, they’re relying on faith to get them there.

“We definitely want to expand our herd and we are entertaining some agritourism to happen here on the farm and we both would like to have a retail store. Don’t know all the details of how that’s going to look, we both are firm believers and know that we all have a journey here and when it’s meant to be, in the perfect time it will happen,” says Vanessa.

By: John Holcomb

Georgia Cattlemen’s Association President Dedicated to Organization, Industry

Blairsville, GA

For Joe Garner, this farm here and this herd of cattle is a lifelong dream that, after many years, has finally become a reality. Garner, who’s family had cattle when he was younger, has always longed to have a herd of his own someday and now that the day is finally here, he says it’s nothing short of a blessing.

“I got my interest and my feet dirty in the garden,” says Joe Garner, President of the Georgia Cattlemen’s Association. “I started driving a tractor when I was in the eighth grade. We still put up hay and those kinds of things, but the cattle, they made a decision when I was five, to market the cattle. And so, I yearned for that day to cattle to come back into my life from that moment. So I started showing calves, steers, eventually showed some heifers throughout late middle and high school, and I guess it’s always been a dream to have a farm. It’s really a blessing to have a place like this.”

In 2014, Garner decided to get involved with the Georgia Cattlemen’s Association at the local level, where he has since served in various roles, the most recent of which is state President – something he considers an honor as he wholeheartedly believes in the organization and its mission to advance and advocate for the beef industry and serve the cattlemen of Georgia both in the field and Atlanta.

“The Cattlemen’s Association is charged to educate our producers, to help with marketing in some ways. We also have a strong legislative component where we actively follow bills and legislation through the process, each forty-day session there at the State Capitol,” says Garner. “It’s really a critical link for all of us, not just the cattle producers, but all farmers in general, to kind of keep some of that legislation at bay that may cause us undue harm, because they don’t see it from our angle. They don’t understand the implication that food and fiber doesn’t just happen at a grocery store. Food and fiber happens out here in the field.”

Not only does Garner believe in the Cattlemen’s Association, Garner also believes in the power of beef and says that it’s a wholesome, renewable product that not only feeds people, but enhances their lives by what beef cattle and beef cattle operations have to offer.

“Beef is a wholesome food. It is packed with many vitamins and minerals. It’s a firm source of protein and it is renewable. It allows us to keep the green space that is critical for all of our lives across the state. You know, many people may not own cattle, but I would venture to say a majority of people enjoy cattle out grazing in a field. They enjoy that green space. And that to me is a critical piece to the quality of life for all Georgians,” says Garner.

By: John Holcomb

Georgia Cattlemen Gather for Annual Meeting

PERRY, GA –  Just like in past years, the annual Georgia Cattlemen’s Association’s convention was a big hit as producers from all over the state of Georgia came together. The three-day event gave producers the chance to learn about new technology and learn about what’s happening in the Georgia beef industry.

“Our mission is to unite cattlemen and bring life blood to the industry. So, we strive to do things through legislation, through education, to make the industry more profitable for beef cattle producers in the state of Georgia. So, we host events like this one this weekend where we can offer education, where we can offer futuristic thinking, things that are maybe coming down the line in the next few years that people need to be thinking about,” says Kristy Arnold, President of the Georgia Cattlemen’s Association (GCA).

The theme of this year’s convention was “Georgia Grown”, which focused on marketing and selling beef that’s grown, well, here in Georgia.

“A lot of times we get questions from producers that may be interested in producing a local beef product, and then I also get calls on a regular basis about consumers wanting local beef,” says Will Bentley, Executive Vice President of the Georgia Cattlemen’s Association. “So, we’ve kind of tailored our convention this year towards the educational side of, if you want to produce beef that goes direct to consumers, this is how you do it, these are the regulations, these are the opportunities, these are the challenges.”

The importance of this event can’t be expressed enough as it allows producers to be exposed to everything they would need to have a successful operation all in one place. It even lets them learn from industry leaders in their cattleman’s college.

“It’s the largest trade show specifically to the cattle industry where you can come out and get all of the equipment and implements that you may need for your operation,” says Bentley. “It’s a great opportunity to learn; a lot of producer education that goes on so that everyone knows what’s going on in the cattle industry, so we can all move forward together.”

Aside from getting to see the latest in equipment, it is also a learning opportunity for those in attendance as they get to hear about what challenges the beef industry is facing. One of the bigger challenges is making sure consumers are educated about the beef industry and not misled.

“They don’t really understand what we do, and they don’t understand that we, here in the United States, provide the cheapest, most wholesome, nutritious product as far as food and protein that there is in the world,” says Arnold.

Another challenge is one that most sectors of the ag world are facing, and that is the challenge of having an aging workforce. It’s something that the GCA is focusing on as they work to help producers that are just entering the business, which is something that can be difficult to do.

“The average farmer in the United States is well over sixty years old now,” says Arnold. “So, we’re really trying to work with the younger producers, getting them the footing that they need to be successful in ag, because it’s a very expensive industry to get into. Equipment is very expensive, all of the capital investments that you have to make are extremely hard to come by, unless someone leaves it to you in your will or you are born into a generational type family farm.”

By: John Holcomb